In October 2021, the government released the Heat and Buildings Strategy. Assessing the effectiveness of a strategy after only 12 months might seem a premature exercise, were it not for the fact that the timelines for significant change set out in the strategy are so short. 

The installation of new natural gas boilers is set to be phased out from 2035, around the same time that nearly a quarter of a million low carbon jobs are due to have been created. Even sooner than this, by 2028, the market is expected to be capable of installing 600,000 heat pumps per year, and, two years before that, major strategic decisions will have been made on the role of hydrogen in future heating systems. With such short timescales, every year counts.

In fairness, the items in the strategy highlighted for early action are mostly underway. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme has been implemented, providing £5,000 grants to support heat pump installations. There has been research and innovation funding for both hydrogen and electrification of heating, as well as increasing levels of funding made available for local authorities and social housing providers to carry out home energy efficiency upgrades. 

So, why does it feel to many in the heating industry that things are starting to drift, and that uncertainty about the future is growing?

A key factor in this instability is the recent change of Prime Minister. The Heat and Buildings Strategy built on much of the Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution; a plan very much associated with Boris Johnson. It is not yet clear whether new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is as committed to this plan, or of the policies associated with it. 

Given that the government’s priority has turned towards helping people with the energy crisis, it is understandable that doubts may have arisen about how much emphasis will now be placed on the wider ambitions expressed in the Heat and Buildings Strategy. 

A recent change of government, as well as the prospect of a General Election at some point in the next two years, does nothing to dispel the feeling that long-term planning has been eclipsed by ongoing change.

You only have to read the trade press or view manufacturers’ product ranges at exhibitions to find clear evidence that the industry is gearing up to do things in a different way. Yet, ultimately, we need to see a real rise in demand from householders themselves to take this beyond readiness and into action at scale. 

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to argue at this moment in time that a householder would know the best route to take for their future heating. Given that some of the infrastructure for low carbon heat is likely to be geographically limited, people will need to know whether and when hydrogen or heat networks will be available in their area before they can make an informed decision for the future. 

While heat pumps are already an option, the message from government that their cost could be significantly reduced by 2025 probably doesn’t help the public to commit to such a large investment – yet another reason for people to delay their decision. 

The government clearly needs to set out the future options for heating in each area, and to get to work on putting in place the necessary infrastructure. Ahead of this there is still much that could be done to create a sense of direction, however. 

The energy efficiency of our homes needs to be substantially increased – something brought sharply into focus by the energy crisis – so there is a desperate need for a transformational programme of energy efficiency improvements in owner-occupied homes, supported either by grants or green finance options that will remain in place for years. 

As part of this, there needs to be a much greater recognition of the role heating systems can play. The recent changes to Part L of the Building Regulations addressed boiler replacements in existing homes, and it will be important that where higher standards have been introduced, these translate into practice. The cumulation of small changes will go a long way to ensuring we are on the right trajectory.

We all know the phrase ‘seeing is believing’. Everyone involved in the prospect of delivering decarbonised heating will be acutely aware that if the Heat and Buildings Strategy is going to have the impact expected, it needs clear and visible support from the new government and, most importantly, signs of real and fundamental change need to be all around us.