For most of us in the heating industry, the next few decades will see a move into uncharted territory, explains Colin Timmins, H&V Portfolio Manager at BEAMA, who investigates below whether our industry is ready for a net-zero future.

In June, the UK passed laws to “end its contribution to global warming by 2050”. This target will require the UK to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050, compared with the previous target of at least an 80% reduction from 1990 levels. Based on previous government analysis, it seems certain that part of this target will be achieved through full decarbonisation of heating and hot water systems in homes.

What full decarbonisation of heating actually looks like in practice has yet to be clearly laid out. What it certainly means is that there will be no place for heating provided by fossil fuels such as gas, oil, or LPG, and the fact that currently over 80% of UK homes have gas central heating provides a very clear example of the scale of change needed. 

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has committed to publishing a roadmap for policy on heat decarbonisation, which will lay out the technologies that can deliver zero carbon. 

The key options being looked at are using the existing gas network to distribute low carbon hydrogen or biogas, using more electric heating through heat pumps or hybrid technologies, and extending the application of heat networks. The most likely scenario is that a combination of these technologies will be set out as the preferred route to decarbonisation, but any scenario will be very different from what we have now.

The temptation with long-term targets is to not pay them too much attention, as they will be someone else’s problem. This could certainly be the reaction to a 2050 target, which might seem more of a retirement target for any installer over 30. 

Yet 2050 is the end point, not the start, and change will be needed much sooner. As an example, if homes are not permitted to have a gas boiler in 2050, then why would anyone want to install one later than 2035 when they might reasonably expect it to last 15 years? 

But even waiting for 2035 is not an option. BEIS actually sees heating as an area that can change more quickly with, in their words, “action needed to drive the uptake of low carbon heating at scale, throughout the 2020s”. Part of this action will have to be training for installers on the new technologies and systems that they will need to install, or even just to ensure that current systems are futureproofed for low carbon heating to be easily retrofitted in the future.

One of the advantages given for hydrogen as a heating fuel in the future is that hydrogen boilers will be very similar to gas boilers, familiar to both installers and householders. But installers are likely to need to be trained and registered to work safely with hydrogen in much the same way that Gas Safe registration is currently required, so undoubtedly it will take time before sufficient installers are in place to carry out these installations. 

The situation will be more complex for heat pumps, hybrids, and heat networks where there will be significant technical differences both for the installation and how the user operates the system. The latter is something that the installer will need to play a big part in communicating, both in selling new approaches to heating and in explaining how to use it effectively. 

At the current time, the installer capacity for such forms of heating is relatively small, so there is both a need for more installers to be trained and, undoubtedly, a huge business opportunity for those installers who can be among the first to widen their skills and, through that, options they offer customers.   

Customer decisions on heating are still largely guided by installers. With around 1.5 million householders currently replacing their gas boiler each year, the move to decarbonised heating will rely on those householders being given options and advice on what they might be able to do to join the net-zero revolution. 

Without that, all of those millions of opportunities to move the UK closer to decarbonised heating will be missed until the next time the boiler is replaced, which will take us perilously close to the 2050 deadline.

This is not to say that it’s down to installers to get themselves retrained. The government knows that it will need a plan to help equip installers with the skills, support, and motivation so that they can deliver low carbon heating options to their customers, whether that be hydrogen-ready boilers, heat pumps, or anything else. In addition to this, the roadmap for the path to decarbonisation of heat is a must have, so that there is a clear, long-term framework and everyone knows what technologies need to be focused on. 

Change is definitely on the way, and it will be daunting for many. Installers will be at the forefront and will need active support from the government, manufacturers, training and certification bodies, and others. In fact, the whole heating industry needs to work together, and we need to start now.