The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has unveiled its first detailed road map for creating a fully decarbonised nation.

Last year, the UK became the first major economy to make net-zero emissions law. In its new landmark  report, the CCC sets out the path to that goal over the next three decades, including the first ever detailed assessment of the changes that will result – and the key milestones that must be met.

The Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037) charts the decisive move to zero carbon for the UK. The CCC shows that polluting emissions must fall by almost 80% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels – a big step-up in ambition. Just 18 months ago this was the UK’s 2050 goal.

To deliver this, a major investment programme across the country must be delivered, in large measure by the private sector. That investment will also be the key to the UK’s economic recovery in the next decade. In many areas, this gives people real savings, as the nation uses fewer resources and adopts cleaner, more-efficient technologies, like electric cars, to replace their fossil-fuelled predecessors. The CCC finds that these savings substantially reduce the cost of net-zero compared with previous assessments: now down to less than 1% of GDP throughout the next 30 years. This is thanks, not only to the falling cost of offshore wind but also a range of new low cost, low carbon solutions in every sector.

Climate Change Committee Chairman, Lord Deben, said: “The Sixth Carbon Budget is a clear message to the world that the UK is open for low-carbon business. It’s ambitious, realistic and affordable. This is the right carbon budget for the UK at the right time. We deliver our recommendations to Government with genuine enthusiasm, knowing that Britain’s decisive zero-carbon transition brings real benefits to our people and our businesses while making the fundamental changes necessary to protect our planet.”

“As we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Sixth Carbon Budget is a chance to jump-start the UK’s economic recovery. Anything less would shut us out of new economic opportunities. It would also undermine our role as President of the next UN climate talks.”

The CCC’s message to government is clear: the 2020s must be the decisive decade of progress and action on climate change. By the early 2030s, every new car and van, and every replacement boiler must be zero-carbon; by 2035, all UK electricity production will be zero carbon. Modern low carbon industries will grow; producing hydrogen; capturing carbon; creating new woodlands; renovating and decarbonising the UK’s 28 million homes. These provide hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout the UK.

The CCC concludes that these changes are feasible and affordable but only if they are led by decisive action from government now. And the process must also be fair and just – the report includes important new insights into how the costs and the benefits of net-zero can be shared more evenly. These are fundamentally desirable goals, bringing multiple wider benefits including better health, and an improved natural environment.

The Sixth Carbon Budget can be met through four key steps, according to the CCC:

• Take up of low carbon solutions. People and businesses will choose to adopt low carbon solutions, as high carbon options are progressively phased out. By the early 2030s, all new cars and vans and all boiler replacements in homes and other buildings are low carbon – largely electric. By 2040, all new trucks are low carbon. UK industry shifts to using renewable electricity or hydrogen instead of fossil fuels, or captures its carbon emissions, storing them safely under the sea.
• Expansion of low-carbon energy supplies. UK electricity production is zero carbon by 2035. Offshore wind becomes the backbone of the whole UK energy system, growing from the Prime Minister’s promised 40GW in 2030 to 100GW or more by 2050. New uses for this clean electricity are found in transport, heating and industry, pushing up electricity demand by a half over the next 15 years, and doubling or even trebling demand by 2050. Low-carbon hydrogen scales-up to be almost as large, in 2050, as electricity production is today. Hydrogen is used as a shipping and transport fuel and in industry, and potentially in some buildings, as a replacement for natural gas for heating.
• Reducing demand for carbon-intensive activities. The UK wastes fewer resources and reduces its reliance on high-carbon goods. Buildings lose less energy through a national programme to improve insulation across the UK. Diets change, reducing our consumption of high carbon meat and dairy products by 20% by 2030, with further reductions in later years. There are fewer car miles travelled and demand for flights grows more slowly. These changes bring striking positive benefits for health and well-being.
• Land and greenhouse gas removals. There is a transformation in agriculture and the use of farmland while maintaining the same levels of food per head produced today. By 2035, 460,000 hectares of new mixed woodland are planted to remove CO2 and deliver wider environmental benefits. 260,000 hectares of farmland shifts to producing energy crops. Woodland rises from 13% of UK land today to 15% by 2035 and 18% by 2050. Peatlands are widely restored and managed sustainably.

To read the report in full, click here.

The Heating and Hotwater Industry Council (HHIC) commented that it was pleased to see the CCC's report outline the ambition for heat oumps and hydrogen for heat, while recognising the changes needed to decarbonise.

Stewart Clements, Director at the HHIC said: “We welcome the CCC’s ambition to have 5.5 million heat pumps installed by 2030 and also the recognition of hydrogen and the real potential it offers to decarbonise heat, affordably.”

“HHIC represents the whole heating sector and we will be working with our members to understand the implications of this report and how we can assist the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) with the transition. As an industry we are committed to helping and supporting the UK reach our carbon reduction targets.”

“However, we must proceed with caution. Having ambition is positive but we have to be prepared for what happens if we can't meet that ambition. The accelerated timelines will be very difficult to achieve in practice. BEIS need to urgently engage with the heating industry to fully understand what we can start to deliver, and what we will need to put into place.”

“For example more work is going to be needed on reskilling the workforce and developing supply chains. Red tape will need to be reduced to allow greater participation in government support schemes like the Renewable Heat Incentive and Green Homes Grant.”

“If a collaborative approach is adopted the heating industry is confident it can reduce emissions to meet our net-zero goals.”